European debt crisis
January 30, 2012, Brussels, Belgium,
European debt crisis has become a "chronic disease", the summit again and again cannot be cured. This year's first informal summit of EU leaders in Brussels yesterday, this is the last two years, EU leader’s summit at the seventeenth.
The EU summit sponsor, the European Council President Van Rompuy recently sent a letter to EU Member States, especially the leaders, I hope this conference will stimulate economic growth on the study and viable proposals. At the same time, the euro rescue fund permanent European stability mechanism (ESM) and Greek debt write-down of negotiations will also be in focus.
Paul anti-crisis growth
As early as before the summit, on trade unions claim that Belgium will launch a nationwide strike, to the summit, "clogging." The face of people's cries, "employment" and "growth" has been talks about European leaders. International Monetary Fund (IMF) President Christine Lagarde called for tightening alone would stifle economic growth. The EU is also trying to adjust to the debt crisis of the strategy, partial tightening shift from side to promote economic growth and employment. Therefore, the European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said the summit will focus on promoting growth, address youth unemployment, support small and medium enterprises development.
The EU currently has approximately 82 billion euros can be used to boost economic growth and employment of various projects. Market participants generally expected that the EU will spend 2007-2013 budget has not been used in 200 million euros in funds for job creation, especially youth employment, and may stimulate bank lending to small and medium enterprises.
According to the latest draft of the EU that the European economy has stabilized signal, but the financial market uncertainty remains high. In addition, governments are taking strong measures to correct the imbalance in the current budget situation, but further measures to promote economic growth and employment in Europe.
But analysts pointed out that economic growth and employment issues, the EU level, as space is limited, and the Member States to stimulate growth and employment, there are divergent views on specific measures.
ESM affects all nerve
In addition to exploring how to promote economic growth and employment, the EU's "financial contract" the parties discussed also the focus of attention. EU leaders summit in the details during the contract reached a basic agreement. The contract aims to strengthen the EU intergovernmental fiscal discipline, including automatic punishment mechanism, strengthen budget oversight. According to the latest draft, the European Court would be authorized for those countries that violate the Convention on the financial sanctions.
In addition, the EU leaders at the summit is also expected to sign the Treaty of ESM, the fund size will be 500 billion euros, will come into effect in July this year, a year earlier than scheduled, when the ESM will replace the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) and in case of emergency loans.
EU leaders hope the ESM can enhance the defense capacity of the debt crisis, but including Lagarde and Italian officials, including Prime Minister said Monty, a prerequisite for achieving this is to EFSF remaining resources into the ESM, the composition of the scale of 750 billion euros Super Fund. Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, said the EU summit can be reached if the ESM agreement will effectively stabilize the market sentiment, as the debt crisis in Europe to create a good atmosphere for the solution.
Greece negotiations remaining hesitation
Yesterday, the European stock markets fell session, the euro-dollar exchange rate hit a level of 1.31, or nearly 0.7% intraday, Portuguese bond yields have continued to soar. In the EU before the summit, investors are anxious to wait for Greek debt write-down of negotiations.
"If the final agreement cannot be successful, we will face the risk of bankruptcy." Greek Prime Minister Papademos said, "This will have disastrous consequences for the Greek community." Rejected the German demands in the Greek setting the EU budget commissioner to Greece veto of the budget news, the German Finance Minister Schaeuble said yesterday that unless Greece will rebuild its economic and financial situation and orderly initiatives carried out, or the euro zone cannot guarantee that a new round of aid to the country release of funds.
A "Dr. Doom" Roubini said the expected Greece to leave the euro zone this year, the collapse of the euro area in the next five years, the probability of more than 50%.
http://stock.sohu.com/20120131/n333238319.shtml
. What are the biggest risks facing the euro zone this year? Past ten years, under various assistance plans to help the eurozone can avoid divisions? In Europe where economic growth point of the next?
Economy wide voice of the central financial review reported that the new year, Christmas holidays in Europe ended, the leaders have returned to work, losing no time for Spain and Italy Government planning, helping them to control debt levels, preventing the euro area in danger of splitting.
Spain new Government forecast last year Spain's budget deficit will reach 8% of GDP than Spain higher Government and economists had forecast, to that end, Spain's Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy announced a new plan to cut spending and raise taxes.
But some critics believe that the euro can continue to exist, the key may lie in Italy because it is the euro group's third-largest economy, as well as debt levels after the Greece country. The first quarter of this year, Italy Government must repay $ 53 billion euros of debt, representing about euro one-third of the total amount of maturing debt in the current period.
However, European stock market also with a happy expression or atmosphere of the new year, new year's first trading day, Germany Frankfurt DAX index was up 117 points, or 3%, closed at 6,075. Paris CAC40 indices Gao Kaigao, trading closed at 3,222 points, compared to the previous day of 1.98%. These signals are 2012 year of good luck? Special commentators, the voice of economic researcher Wei Liang by China institutes of contemporary international relations, world economy to make comments.
Moderator: just had Christmas and new year's day holiday, madly swirling European debt crisis the people began again to face difficult challenges. Now for this year's European leaders start to pinch a Khan, such as France President Nicolas Sarkozy said, this year will be a year full of risks and possibilities. Greece Premier Papademos said Greece in 2012 will be a tough year, and the next three months are particularly critical. In your opinion, how the eurozone will face difficulties this year? Can the saved it?
Wei Liang: I think there may be a political economy of the eurozone this year continued to retreat trend. From now on some of the data, pressure on European debt crisis continues to deteriorate in the first quarter was very large. This pressure makes the euro not be optimistic about future economic conditions. The other hand, it is because of this situation, in political terms there seconded to aspirations to resolve the crisis becomes more intense. Merkel and Sarkozy in the 9th, when he will hold a meeting preparing for the Summit, meaning they're last year's coalition continues to push forward the idea, through the crisis between the Government and the people, help each other aspirations.
Moderator: CNBC headlines published yesterday, the EU authorities prepared to borrow euro ten anniversary to urge resolution of debt crises. Do you think what is the most effective ways to prevent eurozone split? Do you also have to rely on the aid scheme.
Wei Liang: I think that approach is to prevent euro split itself, namely eurozone split the cost. Now input assistance costs are far below the cost of splitting, so the euro is not very easy to split. But there isn't a way, euro-zone leaders eager to solve the problem. I believe the problem-solving steps to do, as long as no sharp fluctuations of the eurozone. The long term, to promote political integration, including the people and the Government seconded, the market to shore up confidence.
Moderator: latest data showed that eurozone industrial sector manufacturing activity declined for the fifth consecutive month in December, and Reuters report also said that economists had expected the eurozone economy had slipped into recession cycle, this recession will continue in the second quarter of this year, so there are economists note the eurozone policymakers, it is necessary to grasp the actual situation as soon as possible. So where do you analyze the next economic growth of the eurozone?
Wei Liang: eurozone economic growth include the development of SMEs, as well as industrialization and industrialization includes manufacturing, emerging green economy, green industry. Eurozone actually in the hands of one of the biggest card is that it measures to address climate change, the EU around the measures in place in the future industrial development. But it is worth noting is that if you mention anti-crisis measures to achieve the effect, so economic growth is an empty word. This also means that the euro-the future of the most important task is to reverse the crisis and is the adopted anti-crisis measures and the promotion of economic growth
http://www.chinanews.com/gj/2012/01-03/3577730.shtml
December 20, 2011
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), the former President of sitelaosi·Kaen (Dominique Strauss-Kahn) in Beijing to attend the Net Ease economists annual meeting yesterday said, China should adopt IMF involvement in Europe's debt crisis is resolved.
It was Kahn since May this year for "sexual" outgoing IMF Chief after the first official public appearance. Mr., Kahn, 62, once regarded as strongman actively supporting European debt problems, but also France President Nicolas Sarkozy, campaign of the strongest opponents. He denounce the majority opinion, to support the euro. In Kahn's positive, driven by IMF to Greece, and Portugal, and Ireland and other EU countries applying aid to make every effort to total aid amount exceeding EUR 200 billion. Kahn is known European debt crisis in a "critical".
"The Eurozone needs fiscal Union"
Kahn released yesterday at the meeting on the theme "global financial crisis, European debt crisis and reforming the international monetary system" presentation, he mentions that "in Europe, most people think that this is the debt crisis, but the real crisis is more growth on the issues, on the banks of issue and the crisis of national competitiveness. ”
Kahn is expected European debt crisis may take a long time, fix the European debt problem in the long run is not optimistic. However, Kahn, propose an EU Summit in March next year is an observation point of the European debt crisis. He said that if March to have better policies and can be quickly implemented, gloomy forecasts for low growth can disappear.
Kahn suggested that solutions to the European debt crisis, euro-zone needed to do was to harmonize the bond market, and to have a strong and stable fiscal Union.
Yale finance Professor zhiwu Chen yesterday expressed the same view of the Forum, European debt crisis with European countries to form some sort of federal system very closely related, there is no fiscal Union, a political Union such a system is very difficult to lasting sustain. Must be for a long time to form a certain form of "United States of Europe", as the United States of America.
For many calls China's involvement in European debt crisis, he said, China should be involved European debt crisis relief, because it is the interests of everyone. China's multilateral institutions through the IMF to help Europe, rather than act alone, so China can make some very reasonable requirements.
"The disintegration of the euro does not"
Kahn, yesterday said that improvement of the IMF can do is to enhance the "special extract rights (SDR)", including increasing global stock of currency reserves, priced by SDR on global trade and pricing of financial assets. He also suggested that the IMF can SDR bond issue, and is in the public offering on the market, so that you can significantly improve the IMF's financial situation.
China now is not the SDR currency basket currency used by the State, if China is to provide European assistance, requires foreign currency-denominated. Once the currency devaluation occurred, China will suffer.
Kahn said the SDR as an international tool, the main obstacle is not technically, but international coordination between political, and so we went back to the old issues of the international monetary system. Kahn said that Yuan to become an international currency, you must first become a freely traded currency. He said the RMB free pricing is possible, but may take some time, especially in China need to open up its capital account to attract more investment.
Kahn says, "I have repeated many times before, now is an Undervaluation of the Renminbi currency clearly can see that the present value of the renminbi is still undervalued, so I feel that the internationalization of Renminbi will continue to improve the valuation of the Yuan. ”
In an interview, to the increasing spread of European debt crisis, he said, "I do not think that the disintegration of the euro zone is a programme to resolve. Various members of the euro zone now has done a lot of effort to solve the current crisis, took a lot of the Summit, did a lot of decisions, of course, these decisions will take time to implement. So far it is not very effective, but even though they are not effective, and I do not think that the disintegration of the euro is a good solution. ”
*Renminbi is legal tender in mainland China, but not in Hong Kong or Macau. It is issued by the People's Bank of China,
http://roll.sohu.com/20111220/n329568408.shtml
December 11, 2011. In the EU subject to United Kingdom 26 Member States on the strengthening of financial discipline outside agreed with the conclusion of treaties between Governments, or "financial contract", while enhancing crisis rescue tools. But the United Kingdom opposed, the Summit failed to achieve modified EU Treaty in the first place. Reached by the latest agreement will be signed in March 2012 at the latest.
Permanent European Council President van rompuy said that the meeting marked the European debt crisis really began to get to the root, is the new development of European integration.
The 26-nation bloc is expected to sign the new testament
According to the EU Summit Declaration, the Summit reached in latest financial protocol and the two rescue tools to achieve results.
First, EU 26 country agreed strengthened financial Union, new agreement main will contains following content: will Government budget balance writes Member States Constitution, European Court right to supervision and award States on budget rules of implementation situation; entered "excess deficit program" of Member States be voluntary accept EU Committee and EU Council of sanctions; Member States over EU Committee set of 3% of deficit ceiling, will automatically entered sanctions program; debt ratio over 60% of national, be pursuant to financial new rules developed debt cuts indicators.
Second, strengthen crisis and rescue tool. Quickly on European financial stability tools (EFSF) for lever of operation; in July 2012 Qian started European stability mechanism (ESM), EFSF will continues to played role, until 2013 in the; ensure EFSF/ESM of total effective lending ability maintained in 500 billion euro, and in March 2012 again assessment this a scale is appropriate; in 10th within confirmed to international currency Fund Organization (IMF) provides up to 200 billion euro bilateral loan, To ensure that the IMF has sufficient resources to deal with the crisis.
Van rompuy said at a news conference after the EU Summit, "Although we lose by modifying a treaty to attain the EU's 27 national common opportunities to strengthen fiscal discipline, but now the results are still good. ”
Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel said that EU Member States reached consensus on strengthening fiscal discipline is "towards a stable Union of a breakthrough", is towards ensuring lasting stability in the euro represents a significant step forward.
Market analysts meeting with some. Chief market strategist at JP Morgan funds Kelly said: "finally towards the end of Europe should do slow crawl. "Pacific [7.11-0.42% stock research] investment management company (PIMCO) Erian, Chief Executive, believes that meeting is not sufficient to play a decisive role, the ECB is not ready to" put the full "stable sovereign debt problems in Europe; Summit failed to combine fiscal discipline and economic growth and promote employment; in addition, the EU internal contradiction remains acute.
An agreement by the European Union Summit news boosted 9th European stocks also up, banking shares leading the way. Pan-European STOXX 600 index 1.2%; Italy FTSE MIB index surged 3.4%; France's CAC40 rose 2.5%; United Kingdom's FTSE 100 index rose 0.8%; Germany DAX30 index 1.9%.
Stocks also up sharply on that day, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 1.55%, and the Nasdaq composite index [1913.37-0.21%] up 1.94% the standard and poor's 500 index rose 1.69%.
United Kingdom "uncooperative"
United Kingdom Prime Minister 9th that the United Kingdom refused to modify EU Treaty is a "difficult but correct decision", the amendment of the EU Treaty "does not meet the United Kingdom's interests", more stringent control is bound to the United Kingdom adversely affecting the economic pillar of the financial services industry.
It is reported that as a sign of financial conditions of the new rules, United Kingdom calls for the country's interests to be protected to avoid financial regulators more power to the EU, and propose additional terms in the agreement, and protect London from influences of new rules on financial services regulation. United Kingdom also hopes that the headquarters of the European banking authority always settled in London. France President Nicolas Sarkozy, "said Cameron's demands are unacceptable."
The late 19th century United Kingdom does not interfere in European mainland affairs policy has been advocated by the outside world as "splendid isolation". At the EU Summit, the 26-nation bloc agreed on the conclusion of the New Testament, leading United Kingdom once again faced isolated position in the EU.
Media believe that the United Kingdom's "uncooperative" attitude will make the EU divisions. United Kingdom 10th the mirror commented, United Kingdom to join the European Union was a "misunderstanding", as the United Kingdom resist pressure on domestic enterprise development, has joined the EU, but on the political and economic policies are often free to the outside of unity.
http://finance.ifeng.com/news/hqcj/20111212/5249825.shtml
December 8, 2011 France shocked by the revolution had a number of all mankind: not free not to die! When I observe the situation in Europe today, I do not know what to think of it. However, now seem to have utterly no heroic sense of history, but a modern deep concerns, this concern is that for the indebtedness of the peoples of Europe, is to uphold freedom died of consumption, is also controlled live free consumption?
Yes, from Europe to the euro-zone to each European country, Christmas this year I'm afraid not so easy, because by the end of next year for the future must be to make a choice, even not much room for choice: in addition to economize suppressed consumption deficit-reducing debts, what other way out?
Looking back over the years and the official circulation of the euro in the past ten years since, the idea of establishment of the United States of Europe has been moving forward. However, due to imbalances and the financial system for the development of the countries of Europe is not unified, structural defects caused by the debt crisis, forced suddenly turning Europe into the most critical moment, not only a threat to the euro's fate, even the European Union appeared split as well.
Looking back from last year's course of saving the European debt crisis, from Iceland to Greece, from small European pigs to dandy law powers, whole is Director of village fire smoke, and save as much as possible to save bigger and bigger, why it is difficult to block? We have long said that the crux of the problem, and that is economic issues must be a political solution. Such a long time in the past, Europeans are always small decoction in the treatment of disease, are reluctant to bring a big operation, more afraid to have a fracture. The so-called scrambled aches, is structural reform, that is to touch the national welfare, lower standard of living, as well as to politicians of the Lok Ma.
Is the so-called hid first hang 15, the forthcoming European Union Summit, France and Germany will submit proposals on amendment of the EU Treaty's common, that is to the European political institutions and financial rules. France President and Germany Prime Minister revealed that their proposals do not include short-term relief measures, but mainly involve medium-and long-term measures such as strengthening financial discipline and improving economic governance, such as establishing the financial balance of the "golden rule", requiring the 17-nation euro zone to write the balanced budget constitutional, Constitutional Court by States on their respective Government budgets are audited. Meanwhile, the revised Treaty budget deficit will be over 3% per cent gross national implementation of automatic penalties.
Proposal by Germany, immediately encountered include the United Kingdom other European countries, the different views, the reason is simple: modifying treaty involves the national welfare policy and the rescheduling of financial expenditure, in particular, will have greater impact on people's livelihood and Government support. Although France and Germany, two pillars of the European Union countries agreed on the amendment of the EU Treaty, but it is not expected at the EU Summit to agree on consistent resistance is very large. France and Germany want the EU's 27 countries to agree as soon as possible. If you are unable to reach agreement within the EU, will seek to 17 Member States of the Eurozone in the two countries reached an agreement before next March, and then absorbing interest in participating in EU Member States to join.
Some analysts believe that if the European Union of 27 Member States cannot reach agreement, then it means that European integration is facing unprecedented obstacles, or even split of Europe sown foreshadowing. Eurozone 17 if you disagree, it is not only difficult to bring other European countries, and may even lead to the disintegration of the euro.
Of course, while the reform faces numerous difficulties, disintegration of the euro price is too high. So, does not rule out the bite situation, Europe's crisis, is likely to force role in promoting European integration. From a historical perspective, the crises and difficulties have often become an opportunity to move forward European integration.
http://news.ifeng.com/world/detail_2011_12/08/11198097_0.shtml
December 6, 2011 Europe financial stabilization fund (EFSF) AAA long-term ratings on "negative watch" list, which may reduce the EFSF's AAA rating in the future. At the same time, reaffirms the EFSF A-1+ short-term rating unchanged.
this adjusted according to the following:
1) supporting EFSF obligations (bonds, notes, commercial paper and other) AAA-level security can provide unconditional and irrevocable guarantee in a timely manner,
2) constitutes the EFSF flow reserve of AAA rated securities. EFSF sponsoring Austria, and Finland, and France, and Germany, and Luxembourg and the Netherlands's AAA credit rating at "negative watch" list, indicating that we are bullish on their credit risk.
Put "negative watch" list means that there is at least in the short term might lower its rating of 50%. From the EFSF is currently structured view, if we drop one or more of the EFSF AAA grade rating and conditions of the sponsoring State remains unchanged, we would cut under the EFSF issue rating to AAA.
On December 5 the AAA-level places the EFSF sponsoring "negative watch" list, said in a statement, Austria, and Finland, and Germany, and Luxembourg and the Netherlands have credit rating downgrade by now are less likely to more than one grade difference, France is not more than two grade difference. We therefore now expect, if in the future cut EFSF rating, up to a maximum of two grade difference.
Upon completion of the EFSF currently rated AAA after sponsoring a reassessment of, we are expected to decide within 90 days of the EFSF credit observations.
If one or more of the EFSF sponsoring AAA ratings were downgraded, we can cut EFSF long-term credit ratings of one or two from. Instead if we will reiterate the EFSF all 6 sponsoring State's AAA rating, we reiterate the EFSF's AAA rating. In addition, if we cut one or more sponsoring at level AAA rating, but there are signs that EFSF sponsoring is strengthening its credibility enough to ease the credit of Member States falling, then we can reiterate the EFSF's AAA rating.
http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/20111206/223310945399.shtml
use this as a way of solving Europe's debt crisis. But have not yet received official confirmation for fear of a rumored nature. Franco-British Summit today made a speech, the three countries each have their own excuse. Non-farm does not give a clear signal. Agencies believe that markets will be more concerned about the ECB's QE expected on December 9 and the European Union Summit. Non-farm does not give a clear signal
Non-farm data released this evening has been mixed. Unexpectedly sharp drop in the unemployment rate, but the number of employment to increase less than expected. Caused by its lack of a clear direction. Euro, chonggao fall of risky assets such as gold, the dollar bottomed out. Markets cooled expectations of fed QE3.
Friday United States Labor Department data showed that United States unemployment rate in November 8.6%, the lowest since March 2009, it is expected that 9%, the former value of 9%. By the source pointed out that more labor to give up looking for work out of employment promoting unemployment rate fell sharply.
United States November quarter adjusted non-agricultural employment increase in population of 120,000 people, less-than-expected value is added to the previously estimated 122,000 people, upward revisions in order to increase the value before 100,000 people, before amendments to 80,000. But
United States the biggest trade partner Canada's job market, it is much worse. Canada statistics released on Friday, Canada employment in November fell for two consecutive months for the first time since the 2009, and the unemployment rate rose to its highest level since June.
ROBERT SINCHE, global head of currency strategy at RBS said: "the most fundamental thing even if it's not a great report, is a good report of sth In contrast to the rumored higher data, data might be a bit disappointing, but the sharp drop in the unemployment rate makes up for that. ”
SINCHE also said: "we have seen recently, there have been many changes--United States go well, sentiment in Europe over the past few days to improve, market reaction, it is enough to consolidate recent gains. I'd like to about 1.35 ended this week trading EUR/USD is not bad. ”
The European Central Bank will provide about 270 billion euros to IMF loan
News on Friday (December 2) show that the ECB will provide up to 270 billion euro loan to IMF, use this as a way of solving Europe's debt crisis.
Foreign media on Friday (December 2) citing two reliable sources as saying that European officials are considering such a proposal from the European Central Bank (ECB) loans to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and then through the IMF funding to address the debt crisis. The European Central Bank will provide loans of up to $ 270 billion for IMF. The two sources also said on Tuesday (November 29) discussions at an early stage of the scheme. Europe's Finance Ministers, including the European Central Bank President, Delacquis (Draghi) meeting on Tuesday expressed support for the continued discussion of the proposal.
Under the plan, euro-zone central banks to IMF working capital. These funds may be used to write down their loan to Spain or Italy. Belgium's Finance Minister Didier Reynders said Wednesday (November 30) said in an interview: "we are looking to maximize cooperation to strengthen the IMF and the European Central Bank. ”
This plan does not replace the European Central Bank to expand bond-buying program. European Central Bank has been buying since May 2010 Greek, love, Portugal, Italy, Spain and other countries amounted to EUR 203.5 billion debt. Such as Germany these rich and unwilling to borrow for the highly indebted countries of the Eurozone countries, the plan is opened without violating the EU Treaty and new channels of access to capital. (By the EU's treaty provision Central Bank cannot provide direct budgetary financing.)
The 17-nation Eurozone central banks the European Central Bank under the leadership of the operation. Delacquis on Thursday (December 1) suggests that as long as the Europeans to take action to ensure the long-term health of the public finance, the European Central Bank will play a more important role in the battle against crisis.
Germany and France Britain each have their own excuses
Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel on Friday (December 2) earlier explained the essence of its claim to the outside world. Merkel called for amendment of the EU Treaty, the establishment of automatic, court enforcement mechanisms to punish the deficit/GDP over 3% and debt/GDP more than cent of countries.
Merkel also said the European debt crisis resolution will take several years; and strengthening the European Monetary Union will be the central issue at the EU Summit, modified EU Treaty or a new Treaty was inevitable, only through the amendment of the EU Treaty in order to reach a fiscal Union. She went on to say the Euro bond non-crisis solution to the problem.
Germany said a Government spokesman said Friday, Merkel considers debt to GDP ratio of over 60% countries set up special funds (redemption fund redemption Fund) ideas worth considering. The spokesman also said the redemption fund proposals help rebuild market confidence in the euro.
Germany Finance Ministry spokesman said, on the recommendations of the National Redemption Fund is based on the believe that euro-zone countries will be held accountable for their debt; redemption Fund will symbolically show States understand high debt is the Eurozone’s biggest problems; also said that the IMF has unparalleled professional degrees in how to deal with the crisis.
France President Nicolas Sarkozy on Friday (December 2) and United Kingdom Prime Minister met in Paris, Sarkozy will more strict euro-zone management prepared by the joint Franco-German plan to consult with Prime Minister. United Kingdom Prime Minister David Cameron: EU Treaty adjustments will ensure and enhance the United Kingdom's interests.
France President Nicolas Sarkozy said that euro-zone countries will unite with each other, no Eurozone countries to breach; current and future European Central Bank will remain independent; on a new EU Treaty, France and Germany stand in line; France and the euro zone countries should adopt a balanced budget rule euro disappear if France has serious consequences. Addressing the European debt crisis is the best way to increase income and reduce expenditure.
Concerns the ECB QE expectations and Summit
Deutsche Bank (Deutschebank) said Friday that movement of the EUR/USD or out of touch with emotional risk appetite, relations between the two investors can no longer be considered natural or continue as indicators of the euro.
The Agency pointed out that, as the market for the European Central Bank (ECB) will launch the expectations of more lenient measures, EUR/USD and the linkages between risk sentiment have been around for a short proof. The Agency said that if European leaders at next week's accident to take active measures, but at the same time easing measures taken by the ECB, the euro/dollar could not be higher.
Markets had expected, the ECB is expected to cut interest rates again by 25 basis points to 1%, and even the future European Central Bank will cut interest rates to lower levels, that is, below the record low of 1%.
Canada Royal Bank (RBC) represents the Eurozone quantitative easing (QE) action will contribute to the trend of the EUR/USD, while in implementing quantitative easing currency will rebound. The European Central Bank on Thursday (December 8) resolutions will hold a policy meeting and announced the latest interest rates, investors expect the Bank to restart the long-term liquidity operations, mass buy Eurozone Government bonds, to ease the impact of European debt crisis.
EU new a Leaders Summit scheduled for December 9, market the Conference as a key meeting will determine the fate of the euro, because if the EU Summit could not come up with credible solutions to the European debt crisis in the market approach, then the euro could dramatically increase the risk of the collapse. EU Summit if a positive result, generally expected to boost the euro further rebound.
http://forex.stockstar.com/IG2011120200005258.shtml
Market research firm Market Economics released on December 1, the euro zone in November manufacturing activity shrink for the fourth consecutive month, further evidence that the Eurozone economy is heading for recession.
According to the November 17 countries of the Eurozone manufacturing purchasing managers ' index (PMI) to 46.4 per cent, consistent with the initial value, lowest since July 2009. October Eurozone manufacturing purchasing managers ' index for 47.1.
These data are based on more than 3,000 survey made by euro-zone manufacturing executives, reading above 50 indicates expanding service sector activity, below 50 indicates that the service sector activity shrank.
In euro-zone Government cuts spending to reduce the budget deficit at the same time, economic growth in Europe are gradually losing momentum, consumer spending will to suppress, worsening Europe's debt crisis has put the economy back on fears of a recession.
The European Commission (European Commission) released on November 10 the half-yearly economic forecast 2011 GDP growth forecasts of the European Union since trimmed down to 1.8% growth in 2012 expected since lowered 1.9%; while the Eurozone in 2011, GDP growth is expected since trimmed down to 1.6% growth in 2012 expected since trimmed down to 1.8%. The Commission also expects EU inflation in 2012 2%, 2013 per cent. Average inflation rate for the euro-2011 2.6%, for 2012.
The European Commission said that economy stalled in a long time the possibility is very high, and given the unusually high uncertainty around key policy decisions, unable to remove the economic feasibility of deep and lasting recession and market continue to be volatile.
The OECD (OECD) on November 28 the Eurozone growth in 2012 is expected to fall sharply to 0.2% 2%, also said that the solution the Eurozone debt crisis is vital to the world economy, European Central Bank again lowered policy rates, and continued to promote the existing non-conventional measures, including purchases of government bonds.
European Central Bank announced on November 3 cut its main refinancing rate 25 basis points to 1.25%, to shore up the economy. Europe's new Central Bank Governor Mr. Draghi says (Mario Draghi) said that the euro-zone economy may be a slight recession. The ECB's next interest on the Conference will be held on December 8, and published its latest economic forecast.
1st other PMI data nor optimistic, euro-zone manufacturing activity in the three major economies are in a State of atrophy. Germany November Manufacturing PMI values from 47.9 per cent in October fell to a 28-month low points, shrink for the second consecutive month; France end November Manufacturing PMI values from 47.3 per cent in October fell to a 29-month low points, shrink for the fourth consecutive month; Italy November Manufacturing PMI rose to 44 per cent in October from slightly.
http://international.caixun.com/content/20111201/NE032egq.html
European debt crisis a momentum spread from South to North.
November 27, 2011 Rating agencies make waves increased market worries, Italy on Friday in sales of short term government bond yields hit a record high. Spain government official said, the country is considering applying for international assistance. European debt crisis has "sprouted" situation.
European debt drama never lacks stars turn to Belgium.
It is worth noting is that only two days, hit back-to-back three major international rating agencies, to spread around Europe debt risk, rating agency's footprint across the European countries.
The crisis spread from South to North
Ratings agency standard and poor's on Friday, Belgium's long-term sovereign credit ratings from "AA +" lowered from "AA" rating Outlook to negative. In fact, Belgium is a national of a State of extremely high savings rate, the move feels European debt crisis a momentum spread from South to North.
P, Belgium may slow down economic growth, European debt crisis seriously affect the financial markets and high government debt was cut Belgium's credit rating of the main reasons. P also raised concerns that Belgium failed attempts to form a new Government will also be a serious threat to Belgium's credit.
Belgium laitemu care taker Cabinet Prime Minister was quick to react downgrades, calling on all political parties to take immediate action and send a clear signal to the outside world as soon as possible. Laitemu stressed that Belgium is a handful of successful stability within the Eurozone public debt of the countries, and Belgium's public debt reduction trends. Subsequently, Belgium parties 2012 budget negotiations and agree on the 26th to eliminate lead last obstacle on the road to the new Federal Government.
Downgraded storm Europe
Following Fitch Ratings on Thursday to Portugal after the rating to junk status, Moody's will also be Hungary's credit rating to junk status "BA1" and maintained its Outlook to negative.
In fact, on fears that France lost its 3 a rating when European debt crisis risks has quietly spread eastward. Since September this year, three major rating agencies have downgraded the Slovenia's rating. Hungary rating downgraded to sign, the debt crisis is "eastward" trend.
Analysts said that many countries in Central and Eastern Europe and the Eurozone close trade ties, the impact of the credit crunch is conduction East through the banking system, coupled with downgrading the storm swept across the whole of Europe, European debt crisis has "sprouted" situation.
Breakup rumors make a great noise
Rating agencies make waves increased market worries, Italy on Friday in sales of short term government bond yields hit a record high. More Spain officials said, the country is considering applying for international assistance.
European debt crisis with severe medical, even European Commission President José Manuel Barroso also said that Europe's debt crisis has not yet found solutions. Italy Prime Minister El said, once Italy defaults, the euro will face is in danger of ending, European integration will end.
"Dr Doom" said Roubini said yesterday, European debt crisis has not only limited to what is called the marginal areas, disintegration risks to euro in the next 2-3 years. Bank of America Merrill Lynch also said that the current disintegration of the euro area seems to have emerged as well.
Prospects for the Eurozone economists zhizhao
European debt crisis deteriorating, while European policymakers remain how to solve the crisis held different views, markets can short-term solution to the debt problem and have no confidence in Europe. Some economists believe that risk aversion or will further push up the euro-zone debt interest, euro-zone Outlook very uncertain.
Nomura Chief Economist in the world Paul Sheard said, the deteriorating situation of the Eurozone, the European Monetary Union is flawed and needs to be corrected, 17 euro-area Member States should reach a consensus on reasonable form and the necessary degree of fiscal Union and shall be implemented, will push the euro out separatism.
Noted economist, Managing Director of Goldman Sachs Investment Management Department General Manager Mr. HA said, addressing the European debt crisis is the key to Eurozone by cutting spending, increasing taxes and other means to improve their financial situation to improve market confidence in its, and the formation of national gross domestic product (GDP), a virtuous circle of high growth, low interest rates.
Andy Xie, an independent Economist believes that southern European countries economy faces three major problems, namely, unsustainable fiscal expenditures, the heavy debt and low competitiveness. In his view, you must extend the retirement age and reducing public expenditure, so as to achieve the purpose of reducing expenditure.
In addition, the need to take a certain amount of debt monetization measures cut Europe debtor’s one-third debt, which means that interest rates in these countries in the coming years will be zero or negative.
http://finance.ifeng.com/roll/20111128/5143848.shtml
November 25, 2011 Italian 2-year government bond yields break 8%.
"Solutions of the European debt crisis did not happen overnight", "Rome wasn't built in a day", "trouble has been brewing for some time" sth Words like this, market participants had heard two-strange sounding cocoon. Officials of the euro-zone as well as global markets every time signals convey the efforts to tackle the crisis, then the facts are what?
No matter how much built Rome needed days, starts at least can pay market "will eventually be built" a clear signal. But the situation in the euro zone is that resolution on debt crisis remains a "future tense". In these days under the haze of the environment, about patience being taller and recession in the euro, but composed a song "Euro falls down is not a crime" of tragedy.
Friday (November 25) by midday in New York, the EUR/USD after the 7-week low points hit 1.3213 levels slightly warmer, the current currency trading in the vicinity of 1.326 levels.
Barroso: Europe still is no solution to the debt crisis
European Commission President José Manuel Barroso (Jose Manuel Barroso) said earlier Friday, the euro is still not found a suitable solution to address the debt crisis, and this is crucial for restoring investor confidence. Mr. Barroso said, "the truth is that so far on the euro-zone debt crisis solution still remains to be discovered to rebuild market confidence in a long way to go. ”
Barroso said that the economic situation is very worrying for Europe, Europe is going through a defining moment. In any case, must find a response to the European debt crisis more powerful ways. In addition, if the euro does not prepare for further integration of the euro cannot continue for long.
Mr. Barroso's attitude and Moody's rating agency (Moody "s) are similar to, who said earlier this week, euro-zone debt crisis there is no" suxiao jiuxin pill ".
Sweden Nordea Bank (NordeaBank), Chief foreign exchange strategist at NielsChristensen said the euro anterior a haze. European bond markets increasingly bleak, adverse factors aggravated the Eurozone. Risk appetite back supported against the dollar.
Italy yields eight European Central Bank-breaking one person alone cannot save the situation Friday midday in Europe, in Italy a weak new debt auction results, the Italian 2-year government bond yields break 8%. Treasury yields soar means that the country's short-term sharp rise in financing costs was forced to seek external assistance in increasing risks.
In addition, the European Central Bank (ECB) suspected purchased debt operations on the secondary market also seems to inhibit yields higher. Italy in mid-August 10-year Treasury bonds rose to 6% from the above, the European Central Bank begins again intervene in the bond market in order to stabilize the situation in the country's debt. However, as the European debt crisis spreading influence growing, European Central Bank alone own forces apparently unable to stop the situation from further deteriorating.
Deutsche Bank (DeutscheBank) AlanRuskin, an analyst said Friday, as Europe's debt crisis gradually spread to the core countries, euro assets becoming less attractive to investors. EUR/USD in the first quarter of 2012 is expected to drop to 1.25.
Ruskin pointed out that when the crisis came when investors often choose to sell foreign assets, funds return to their countries. Due to the foreign investors ' holdings of euro assets is much higher than the Eurozone’s foreign assets held by investors, once the European debt crisis a full-blown, or would be foreign investors ' heavy selling euro assets.
Deutsche Bank Chief Economist for greater China June MA recently pointed out that the European debt crisis continues to deteriorate, even serious deterioration. European crisis has from the beginning of the first phase of the second phase of the evolution to the present.
He said, the first phase is the problem with the debt itself. Now enter the second stage, Bank issues began to emerge, recent data indicate that default risk among banks increased 8 times than normal. As the crisis deepened, big countries or relatively healthy national rescue of weaker States will decline, the debt crisis is itself a process of rapidly expanding, aid per capita costs increase lead to feasibility of aid reduction.
http://roll.sohu.com/20111125/n326941570.shtml
November 24, 2011 Fitch downgraded Portugal's credit rating
International rating agency Fitch announced on 24th, because Portugal financial imbalances, the Department high debt and deteriorating economic Outlook, Fitch has been Portugal's credit rating from BBB-down to BB+. Fitch BB rating that is identified as junk by the market.
Fitch also Portugal's credit rating Outlook as a "negative", which means that future Portugal or being further degraded.
Fitch said the economic deterioration of the environment Portugal facing more challenges Government to reduce budgetary measures. Fitch also believed that Portugal Government to achieve this year and next fiscal targets, but poor economic prospects increased risk and inadequate expenditure control.
In addition, this year Portugal debt of State-owned enterprises rose to become one of the important reasons for the country's financial risk. Fitch said, for these reasons, Portugal are likely to need more adjustment measures in 2012.
Portugal was the Greece and Ireland third after receiving external assistance of Eurozone countries. According to Portugal and the International Monetary Fund assistance agreement, the European Union and the European Central Bank, Portugal won 78 billion euros over three years (about US $ 107.3 billion) financial assistance, provided that the 2011 deficit by ratio of GDP in 2010 from 9.8% per cent in 2012, further down to 4.5% in 2013 to reach EU target of 3%. (Xinhuanet)
Grand Duke downgraded Portugal national credit rating to BB+
Dagong global credit rating company limited announced on 24th Portugal, foreign currency State credit rating was downgraded to BB+ from BBB+, Outlook negative.
The Grand Duke, arrogant in March this year cut its credit rating from A-to BBB+ since Portugal a further deterioration of the economic and financial situation, Portugal Government in accordance with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund assistance programme agreed in May to enter the markets less likely. Given the difficulty of structural reform should not be underestimated, after careful assessment of Portugal Government solvency is experiencing the deterioration of the process and extent, determine the appropriate cut Portugal national credit rating to reflect the changes in the situation.
Grand Duke expects 2011 Portugal economic recession will reach 1.7%, down 2.2% of the scheme scheduled to decline the target. Due to medium-term within financial crunch measures will more severely, economic structure adjustment continued for, domestic demand will further fell, and actual effective exchange rate difficult to fast fell and European economic growth prospects Dim, adverse factors will suppression export of continued growth, 2012 Portugal economic recession will reached 3.5%, medium-term within difficult to recovery stability of are growth, if does not appeared fundamental of system and structure change, long-term within economic of recovery ability are will is limited.
The Grand Duke considered, due to ineffective control of expenditures and tax revenues are expected to be overly optimistic, at all levels of Government in late 2011 deficit ratio will exceed the original target 1.7%, to 7.6%. In the medium term, because of structural deficits is difficult to effectively compress the recession than expected, and popular sentiment growing constraints, Portugal Government achieve the medium-term reduction of red target difficulty increases. 2012 rate at all levels of government deficit is expected to be 5.6% over the medium term it is difficult to stabilize below 3%.
Grand Duke is expected, the end of 2011, Portugal at all levels of government debt ratio will reach 107.5%. Medium-term within, due to structural reform progress slow makes financial deficit reduced difficulties, debt scale expansion led interest paid constantly growth, and Government for improve Bank core capital adequate rate may provide additional of assistance, Portugal Government of liabilities scale will further expanded, and on banking bond financing provides of guarantees also greatly increased has Government of or has debt, is expected to in benchmark situations Xia 2015 years Portugal levels government liabilities rate will reached 135.2%. (Xinhuanet)
Under the debt crisis of the European banks in deep trouble
As the Eurozone sovereign debt crises escalated, European banks facing increasing liquidity risks. Analysts pointed out that Europe's banking crisis already interwoven with sovereign debt crises, the vicious circle of interaction to address increasing difficulty.
Banks in financial distress
At present, the European Bank write-downs Greece debt 50% at the same time, core capital ratios need to be raised to 9%. And sudden landslide made it hard for banks in the private market financing market confidence, faith also dropped to below freezing in the interbank market.
In this case, Eurozone banks on demand of the European Central Bank financing of relief to the highest level in two years, Tuesday 7th loans increased per cent from the amount of 17 billion euros, to 247 billion euros (about $ 330 billion), the number of banks involved in the bidding for emergency liquidity plan increases from last week's 161 to 178.
According to the European banking authority announced in July, the European Bank stress test results, Portugal, and Ireland, and Italy, and Greece, and Spain five European debt crisis disaster domestic banks in countries most affected by the debt crisis, because they are sovereign debt more than 80% are held by national treasuries. Institute of European and global economic nigula·weilong pointed out that this increases the difficulty of resolving sovereign debt crises of the five countries and greatly increasing the risk of the banking sector.
Outside the five Nations, France banks hold debt most of the above five, only the country's four largest banks hold of 419 billion euros (approximately US $ 559.9 billion). So much exposure, France banks face huge challenges. And once which France banking problems, France's AAA sovereign debt rating will be precarious, and cause the banks face greater financing difficulties.
Real risks may be greater
Reporters interviewed many experts believe that European banks facing a real crisis may be much larger than the book data, and the biggest crisis, they just don't know how much risk.
In early October, one of the main banks in Europe, France and Belgium de summer of joint venture banks become the European debt crisis since the outbreak of the first European banks receiving government aid. In July, de summer Bank went through the "history of the most stringent" European Bank stress tests, and make core capital adequacy 10.4% "good results".
In fact, questions about past three European Bank stress test results has never been broken. September 2009 test overall results only, there is no specific data bank. July 2010 test results of the test despite the major banks announced, but the index is not specific, test scores "good enough" Ireland United Bank less than six months were nationalized. In July 2011, 90 European banks accept the stress tests, only 8 failed to cross the German Bank has successfully passed the examination.
Vairon said European banking regulators, in fact, there is a huge flaw. While the euro-zone countries to achieve a monetary Union, but banking supervision is disjointed, without knowing how the Member States of the European banking authority the true state of the Bank. In some countries, such as France, even keep AAA sovereign debt rating, nor open domestic banks of all things, even if a problem is found, will not be taken in a timely manner may be interpreted by the market "banking crisis" of measures to support banks.
Issue short term difficult to solve
Experts believe that the short term, the Eurozone Summit last month through the capital restructuring plan based on stress test results will not be able to have the desired effect. Under the plan, the core capital ratio of less than banks must first of all in the private market financing, if financing difficulties, belongs to its capital injection by the Government, if the Government cannot inject, and then to the European financial stability facility (EFSF) for help. Mr. Véron said, the reality is, the debt crisis in the Eurozone banks is very hard to be in the private market financing, and because most of the banks most in need of help are in the countries most in need of help, so by the respective state capital injection are not reality.
Vairon said: "for banks that use the same currency must be made by the same body to aid in the euro area level. "However, such aid cannot be achieved in the short term, because EU Member States on the many details of how to expand the EFSF firepower was not agreed, at the same time the EU and the euro zone does not have the power to launch and implement the same relief.
European policy Centre, Fabian·zulige, Chief Economist believes that Europe's banking crisis can be traced back to before the sovereign debt crisis, during the 2008 financial crisis, many European banks ' capital adequacy ratio and risk management issues, such as exposed, however many European banks and regulators "refuse to face harsh reality". In 2009, the United States to recapitalize its banks require large banks to raise additional capital, as a higher-than-expected capital loss, while European banks do not take similar action.
http://roll.sohu.com/20111125/n326803452.shtml
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