"European meeting on" EU Summit failed to boost market confidence, risk currencies fell sharply
December 12, 2011
On December 12, on issues such as key to the EU Summit in purchased debt has not come to fruition, many details remain to be perfected, rating agencies continue to threat to eurozone hands, market sentiment remained under pressure, the risk of currency weakened sharply. Current market interest focus turned to the Federal Reserve on the Conference, the market will not bring it to the third round of quantitative easing monetary policy is expected.
The EU held the 15th Summit in two years last week, made three major progress: first, regardless of United Kingdom against 26 Nations sign new eurozone financial agreements; the second from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) inject 200 billion euros; its three 500 billion euro of European stabilisation mechanism (ESM), with 440 billion euros the European stabilisation fund (EFSF) in parallel, to reinforce its financial firewall.
But the market Outlook for the European debt worries surfaced again: about whether the European Central Bank expressed support for the new financial agreement, which in turn increase the buying power, as well as common eurozone bonds, and other key issues, have not been resolved at the EU Summit.
The other hand, the rating agencies maintain negative forecasts over Europe, Moody's said on Monday that the EU Summit results the lack of new measures, euro zone rating is still at risk in the coming months, within the next few months are likely to take negative rating actions in the region. Expected in the first quarter of 2012 to reassess EU sovereign ratings.
Prior to this, p (S&P) is already on Monday (November 5) 17 countries among the 15-nation eurozone sovereign comments on looking forward to the inclusion of a negative credit watch list. At the same time, p threatened would depend on the EU Summit results to decide whether to cut Germany AAA top reviews.
France debt downgrades threat France President Nicolas Sarkozy says France can overcome the effects of lose their AAA rating, even though the process would be more difficult. Standard and poor's Corporation (Standard&Poor "s Corp.) Threatened before, according to the results of last week's European Summit, probably France AAA rating of two.
He said, the current standard and poor's remains to France's AAA rating; if the standard and poor's cut its rating, they would calmly handle; this process would be more difficult but not insurmountable. Sarkozy said the key problem is that France's economic policy and Red reduction strategies. He said that it will strictly abide by its red reduction targets. Even though next year France gross domestic product (GDP) grew only 0.5% (the Government forecast growth for 1%), the country can achieve its objectives.
Italy for sale of 7 billion euros 12 months Treasury, Italy 12-month average contract rate of 5.952% of new debt, the last time 6.087%; although Italy 12 months Treasury auctions at a lower rate of return has attracted strong demand, but the euro continued to record low in December.
Italy yields have been a good indicator of demand is a measure of the euro, although the rate dropped sharply against the euro last week did not affect foreign exchange rates, a few, but in recent months the yield trend and correlation of euro foreign exchange rates, performance has been very high. The European Central Bank is likely to continue as Italy debt support.
After a strong EU Summit, tired of the global market can be turned to the Federal Reserve this week seeking clues, the Fed is expected to be on the monetary policy meeting Tuesday further easing do important groundwork for 2012.
The Federal Reserve will hold a last meeting of the interest on the 13th. Federal Reserve open market Committee new policy action is not taken, given the United States economy has improved in the third round of quantitative easing monetary policy will be the candidate tools, not now.
The dollar index: shocks in Europe rose highest to 79.32. Below concerns 79 first-line support, seeking 78.80-78.60 fall down first-line support, 79.2 above concern line, once a firm will to 79.40-79.60.
EUR/USD: fell sharply in Europe, close to 1.32 in a gate. Technology, the exchange rate still in a downward trend, resistance 1.3385, above, below support, 1.32.
GBP/USD: staged reversal in the European market, today hit rebounded quickly after low 1.5536 per cent. The technical side, above the resistance, 1.5658, supporting 1.5585, below.
AUD/USD: turbulence in the European market in decline, minimum to 1.0071. The technical side, stymied by 55 4 hours averages, MACD is below the 0 axis near the below key support at 1.007.
US dollar/Japanese Yen: the European market rose slightly, but is stymied by 78 mark. From a technical point of view, the dollar/Yen near 30th averages, MACD indicator red kinetic energy column shrinks away, KDJ index down. If the exchange value of breakthrough levels of 78.6, then rebound goal points to 79.5 level. If the exchange rate fell below 76.7, the callback target will point to 76.3.
http://forex.hexun.com/2011-12-12/136230587.html
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