China Economy

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China Economy,

December 21, 2011　　As the stock market "weathervane" of social security funds finally sold, were interpreted as stock markets usher "policy bottom".
On December 20, DAI Xianglong, President of the National Social Security Fund Council openly expressed support for the social pension insurance into the stock market, and take concrete action to support the previous recommendations of the Securities and Futures Commission Guo Shuqing President. The helm stand two large organizations so that the "two major Fund pension fund and social housing fund should enter the market" of the discussion was heated discussions.
At the same time, continued negative interest rates running status of pension funds in recent years has entered the public and the media vision, market attention should widen the investment channels and realize value.
On December 21, a security expert told reporters that China's social endowment insurance system is not yet perfect, is imperative to widen use of channels, access to capital markets would be all, but entered the same unhealthy and much-needed institutional reform capital markets, time is not ripe.
Nearly 2 trillion pension should be value-
In accordance with international practice, no matter what kind of through the social security fund investment channels, almost beat inflation is the appreciation of the bottom line.
According to the Ministry of human resources and social security (hereinafter referred to as "people"), five social insurance for the year 2010 (excluding new rural social endowment insurance) funds $ 1.8823 trillion total revenue, grew $ 270.7 billion, growth of 16.8%. But this part of the Fund is currently applying its channel can only be deposited in a bank or bond purchases.
Five investment fund management level most of the County, more than 2 trillion social security funds are distributed in more than 2000 counties and manpower at the municipal level throughout the country, have been unable to achieve national co-ordination, showing a serious "fragmented" administrative status.
Due to the limited investment channels and can not always formed together, 90% deposit the five funds, ten years the average annual rate of return on investments of less than 2%, well below the inflation rate rising, the appreciation of the increasing pressure tight.
A capital market researchers said, according to international practice, no matter what kind of through the social security fund investment channels, almost beat inflation is the appreciation of the bottom line.
Previously mentioned social security expert told reporters that the period of the social insurance system in China with reference to United States "is now on your pay" system of social endowment insurance system. So-called your pay system, can be interpreted as a line from the image of serving officers as intermediary to collect social security premiums, a line to pay insurance to retired officers, between receipt and payment of accumulated cash flow balances for Social Security Fund.
In the United States, is the national co-ordination of social endowment insurance in order to "Trust Fund" form, direct control by the Federal Government. Regulation and investments of the Fund is dedicated "Board of Trustees of the Trust Fund" to take responsibility for it. By the end of 2010, United States social Endowment Insurance Fund's total assets had reached $ 2 trillion.
United States law, the Trust Fund does not allow "the market" can only invest Bank and the United States Treasury issued long-term bonds.
As the Fund was not fully fund, it would not seriously affect the appreciation of the results on the system, because your pay system itself and the relation between economic conditions and inflation is low, but sensitive to aging. In 1983, as a financing gap, United States has raised old-age insurance contribution rate by two percentage points, so that its income and expenditure balance again.
My take is now receiving combined give personal accounts of the social security system. In either form, the funds are administered by the Government. The expert added that otherwise is a practice on the international, national social security fund administered by the Government, but there is a minimum yield guarantee, if you do not reach the appropriate rate of return on investments, the Government needs to pay.
Pension cannot pay for the stock market
Social Security Fund as the lives of ordinary people, can only share the fruits of economic growth and development of stock market dividend, unable to pay for his health condition.
In fact, although the United States never established decades into the stock market for Social Security Fund, but the debate about whether they should enter the market never stops.
The trust funds have a special independent body responsible for applying, and regulated by the Ministry, but because the majority can only invest in United States long-term government bonds, the view was expressed that, although the trust fund accounts and other bonds look different, but cash flow may exist. In short, the possibility that is disguised to be misappropriated by the Ministry, has increased at least United States Treasury Department's borrowing capacity, so you should invest in the stock market.
But instead of views is think, this pen money used to inputs stock market does not fair, because it by Government control, inevitably will enjoyed policy dividend, thus formed a species paradox--does not using policy dividend, the Fund investment is difficult to has beyond market of special performance, but as special institutions, if in understanding policy hole cards of premise Xia market, and other investors, especially many retail compared to, information obvious does not said, fair sexual difficult to guarantee.
So, on the National Council for social security fund investment figure, seems to be little trace can be found. At the end of 2010, ten years since the founding of the Fund, the accumulated investment income more than 277 billion yuan, with an average annual investment rate of 9.17%, 2.14% removed an average annual rate of inflation over the same period, net yield of 7.03%.
In the bull market in 2007, national social security fund yields as high as 43%, investment performance is really commendable. It's undeniable is that on both the system level and the tack, NSSF has enjoyed special "care".
2010 annual report shows that national social security fund that year received the territory switched into State-owned shares $ 31.98 billion, of which $ 19.663 billion stock, $ 12.317 billion in cash. Since June 2009, the implementation of the domestic securities market switched part of enriching the national social security fund, since the measures for the implementation of State-owned shares, the cumulative $ 91.764 billion switched into the territory of the State-owned shares, of which $ 69.522 billion stock, $ 22.242 billion in cash.
A source close to people and Social Affairs of the said, on the five Fund application, investment research and assessments of a number of years, people and Social Affairs related programmes have been submitted to the decision-making levels, in which a plan is to place the funds in a manner similar to the national social security fund operation, but never made policy promises.
Previously mentioned social security experts say pensions into the stock market can be a value-path, with the exception of us and other foreign countries also have similar experience, but given the current status of China's capital markets, and risk is greater than the gains.
"Whatever decade reincarnation, stock index growth, China's State-owned enterprises and a large number of interest groups on the capital markets, or even manipulate the stock market, and is an unfair and opaque market, while the social security fund as ordinary people's lives but to share the fruits of economic growth and development of stock market dividend and not pay for their unhealthy development
http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/zldx/20111222/034411037894.shtml

December 9, 2011,China November 2011 CPI up 4.2%, drop more than expected

Government and market focusing more to growth for policy adjustments to provide space

Over China's economy for over a year-long haze inflation finally fading away. National Bureau of statistics announced yesterday, November consumer price index (CPI) rose to fall sharply 1.3% per cent, the figure is lower than that expected by the market 4.4%, and for fourth consecutive month of decline, is 14-month low CPI y/y data further confirmed the downward trend of inflation.

Market watchers expect government and market concerns point more towards "growth".

>> statistics

Per cent from the CPI for the first time go up for the drop

In November, overall consumer price level (CPI) rose by 4.2%, gains the month before your 1.3%. Among them, food prices rose 8.8%, non-food prices rose 2.2%, consumer goods prices rose 5%, services prices 2.4%.

In November, the national CPI fell by 0.2%, per cent from the first go up for the drop. Among them, city fell 0.2% rural decline 0.2%; food prices 0.8%, non-food prices rose 0.1%; consumer goods prices decreased by 0.2% services prices 0.3%.

PPI rose 2.7% per cent drop cent

In November, the national industrial production and factory (PPI) rose 2.7%, fell 0.7%. Purchases of industrial production prices rose by 5.1%, fell 0.7%.

>> other statistics

In November China's above-scale industrial added value after deducting price factors rose 12.4%, down 0.8% growth than the previous month.

In November, the national area of residential sales fell 1.7%.

1, national real estate development and investment of 5.5483 trillion yuan, an increase of 29.9%, which in November rose 20.1% in the month.

>> official interpretation

Is mainly due to warping effects reduced considerably

National Bureau of statistics said, according to estimates in the CPI rose in November, last year's carryover effect of price increases of approximately 0.5%, the new price is about 3.7%. November CPI rose than the decline of October rose 1.3%, mainly under the influence of two reasons: one was a higher base from a year earlier, November warping effects significantly lower; second per cent from the vegetable, meat and other food prices in November fell, which has led CPI fell 0.25%.

Link fall of food prices to expand

Following the food last month after prices fell for the first time in 5 months, per cent from the November food prices continued to decline, decline and expansion of 0.6% per cent. National Bureau of statistics noted that, in November, food prices fell by 0.8%, affect the overall price level reduced by about 0.25%. Among them, prices of fresh vegetables fell by 6%, affecting the overall consumer price level reduced by about 0.15%. Meat, poultry, and its product prices fell 2.6% (pork prices fell 5.3%, than the sequential decline in October expanded 3.5%), egg prices fell 4%; fish prices fell by 0.7%, the three together impact the overall consumer price level fell by about 0.27%.

>> focus on turning points

Inflation cycle completed

ANZ Economic Research Director of greater China Ligang Liu believes that from the data view, continue to promote in the past year CPI rise in food and living costs, continue to show signs of weakness, food prices rose and fell to a two-digit number following, indicating that rising inflation cycle has fully completed. At the same time, CPI data per cent from a rare decline, this also indicates that the momentum of inflation has largely been contained. Judging from the current data in the next few months, the CPI inflation rate is likely to go lower than 5%, and could fall below 4%, provide the basis for further easing of monetary policy in the future.

CPI will step into the slow down period

Huarong securities chief strategist Xiao Buo said that, according to trends in the CPI peaked has been set, the next month probably below the 4% per cent. Securities macroeconomic analysis Division in the State sea Zou Lu, falling inflation trend will continue, however, because new year's day and Chinese new year approaching, may reappear to pick up food prices, CPI fell sharply in recent months the situation is expected to end, after which you step into the slow down period.

>> policy study

Monetary policy will move closer to neutral

Vice Dean of the Faculty of Economics, Renmin University Liu Yuanchun said future policies are determined by a proactive fiscal policy and a neutral monetary policy combined. On one hand, monetary policy move closer to the neutral position further, on the other hand, fiscal policy began to change in the positive direction. Probability of future interest rate cuts are unlikely, not comprehensive easing of monetary policy, unless real estate regulation effects a clear appearance.

Or drop three times in the first half of next year to save

Jing Ulrich JPMorgan China region global markets believes that with inflation pressures gradually ease, policymakers will have more space to selectively implement easing, in response to rising slower growth risks. JPMorgan predicts reserve requirements in the first half of 2012 will occur 3 times reduced, reduced by 50 basis points at a time; "but are different in 2008-2009 and, the Government introduced measures would be far less than the size of. We expect government policies will be introduced to raise revenue, stimulating consumption and reduce the tax burden, and would not again launch a massive fiscal stimulus. "Our reporters Ma Wenting

CPI 1 April don't lightly inflation low turning point coming

On December 9, the closely watched November key economic data released on schedule. The November economic statistics data show that overall consumer price level throughout the country (CPI) rose by 4.2%, the national industrial production and factory (PPI) rose by 2.7%, 0.7% fell, two things have reached new lows in the near future.

Statistics revealed that in November, consumer prices overall rose than the decline of October rose 1.3%, there are two main reasons: the is higher base with the same period last year November warping effects to significantly reduce second per cent from the vegetable, meat and other food prices in November fell, which has led the overall consumer price level fell 0.25%.

However, it is worth noting is that non-food prices have come down significantly slowed down, but judging from the nature of inflation, is a typical cost-driven inflation, running from the cycle, there are in a period of rising inflation, saying inflation turning points have been established are clearly too optimistic. National statistics monitoring of 50 cities in staple food prices, rose varieties account for ratio of 55% per cent increase. Released 6th of Commerce monitoring data also showed that from late November to early December edible agricultural products prices rose slightly, mainly temperature drops, rain and snow weather occurs in some areas, affect the listed vegetable and transport.

View of the complicated domestic and international economic environment, at present, except for considerations of inflation would further consider the question of economic growth, which prompted the macroeconomic policy-making for future policies will be more cautious. However, you can expect is that maintaining economic growth will be the main task. In the case of continuing deterioration of the real economic development, policies and targeted more obvious, but loose the soundness of the overall policies cannot be said, this is contrary to the purpose of maintaining stable economic growth.

From domestic of economic run situation,, Qian three quarter maintained has 9.4% of growth, although currently by continued of macroeconomic regulation and control effect, especially real estate fall, related industry appeared has growth slowed of situation, market expected 4 quarter GDP will fell to 9% following, but can see, growth in 9% for China of economic fundamentals for is a can accept of data, is we active regulation of results, and relative Yu Europe national by domestic employment of political pressure, and economic recovery slow,, China's economic growth is still considerable.

Not denied, as economic run of first indicators PMI appeared has three years to of minimum value, reflect large and medium-sized enterprise of official PMI index for 49%, and reflect SMEs of HSBC PMI only for 48%, this display out currently of economic run was perimeter factors effect more obvious, and by international market demand and domestic macro policy, factors of effect, SMEs problem became currently economic run in the most does not determines of risk. In fact, for small and medium businesses report reflecting the development of macro-policy makers for now great attention to the plight of SMEs.

Economic performance to current policies make a lot of pressure, so when prices fell, growth inevitably will account for the important position of thinking. However, when prices under control, not factors of rising prices eased, the most obvious is that with the advent of winter, shortages of electricity shortage, lack of oil, coal, and labor shortage issues such as the impact on prices to businesses and society. In fact, this year faced by domestic factors is complex, in addition to excessive liquidity in the world, international factors such as higher commodity prices, domestic monetary factors, the price of basic products, ineffective investment of health issues such as too much, in joint efforts to push up domestic inflation; coupled with domestic CPI statistics also reduces defects on estimates of inflation.

From a domestic point of view, resources price reforms continues to drive, coal and electricity contradiction is driving increases in electricity prices, the beginning of national development and Reform Commission has passed a mounting electricity price hike policy, although residential electricity consumption not involved, but under the current system, eventually will be passed on to the consumer. Rising labour costs are also continuing, now wages across the country are raised significantly, and including the raw materials are in the upward trend. These prices will contribute to society as a whole eventually rising price levels.

From the perspective of international environment and by the European debt crisis, Europe's economic recovery has been very weak, this 8th European Central Bank interest rate adjustments, so that their level of interest rates at 1%; fed although there is no action, but its easing trend will not change. Therefore, international easing effects to China's domestic policies cannot be ignored.
http://news.qq.com/a/20111210/000075.htm

December 7, 2011, the Chinese Academy of social sciences published the 2012 economic blue book noted that growth in 2012 about, below the 9.2% growth this year, down from October's 9.2% growth forecasts.
Deputy Director Li Yang of the Chinese Academy of social sciences at the Press Conference stressed that the decline in economic growth next year will be taken for granted. China's long-term economic growth in the future may be in 9%.
Because so is currently promoting economic growth, "the troika" power is weakened. Such as net export contribution to the economy may be negative.
"(Next year) export (economic) growth has begun to be zero or even negative. Relatively stable consumption, investment and then fell, came to (next year) 8.9% growth is a logical result. "Li Yang said at a news conference.

　　It is understood that the members of are expected to meet in the near future for next year's tone of macroeconomic policy. The central economic work Conference will take place next week. Consider future support potential growth rate of China's economic growth will decline, some scholars believe that Central the need to cut in economic growth target for next year.

　　CASS blue book believes that next year China investment, net exports and consumption growth rates are slowing. With 2012 investment growth rate is approximately 22%, down 24% growth this year. Trade surplus of us $ 135 billion, down from $ 161 billion this year figures. Total retail sales of social consumer to 21 trillion, growth of 15.7%, down 16.7% growth this year.

　　Whilst a troika spins down, causing the judge next year China's economic growth rate to 8.9% forecasts, judge belonging to the relatively optimistic on the markets. The ADB report released on December 6, 2012, China's economic growth rate of 8.8%, but if the Eurozone and the United States economic recession, then next year China's economic growth to drop to 6.8%.

　　Li Yang believed that the troika, in particular, decline in external demand, leading to China fell more natural, say goodbye to China's economy too dependent on investment and exports in the future, making economic growth decline, is actually a good thing. "As far as the mode of economic development, we have leapt to a new level, based on a structure more coherent and more sustainable health development. “He said.

　　In his view, the trade surpluses may be about $ 150 billion in the coming years, for many years the trade surplus in the future shares of the economy will be lower than 3%.

　　European sovereign debt crisis have not been spent, which in March next year Italy debt set expires, whether the State will step in Greece, footsteps and become a matter of concern. In view of the European Union and the United States is China's largest export market in Europe and the economic recession will drag on exports of Chinese goods.

　　Economic troika have slowed structural adjustments required speed

　　Taking into account the causes of the recession in the developed countries, currently the Ministry of Commerce for export growth target next year forecast relatively conservative, about 10%. This significantly lowers than the cumulative exports in the first 11 months of this year 22% growth.

　　Taking into account economic growth will decline, economic Blue Book suggested in 2012, mainly macroeconomic policies to stability, to continue implementing the proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy. Moderate fine-tuning preconditioning in due time, to maintain the steady growth of the economy, and effective way of speeding up the adjustment of economic structure and economic development changes.

　　This includes increased structural intensity of tax cuts to solve repeat collection services business tax, imposed on some small profit enterprises income tax preferential policies, the implementation of related measures.

　　National People's Congress Standing Committee, Chen jiagui pointed out that the "prudent monetary policies" references a more neutral, after the price growth fell back to a reasonable interval, at an operational level appropriate monetary policy easing.

　　Central Bank began on December 5 cut in deposit reserve ratio for commercial banks. Taking into account the November has started to ease credit, some experts believe that 2012 will remain moderate credit growth for the year.

　　Number of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Deputy Director Li Xuesong, believes that in speeding up the adjustment of economic structure and change the mode of economic development, the next step should include government resources to employment, social protection, education, medical, and other public services. Focus on consolidating the foundation of agriculture, do everything possible to increase peasant incomes, further narrowing the income gap between urban and rural residents.
http://news.hexun.com/2011-12-08/136091950.html

December 1, 2011 this year, commercial banks ' reserve requirements in excess of, the Bank has been in a shortage of funds. Many small businesses seeking loans without doors, mired in "money shortage" dilemma. Central banks lowered deposit financial institutions renminbi deposit reserve rate 0.5%, experts say, will help to relieve tension of bank loans, credit for small enterprises shed light on.

Business pressures will ease

Since 2010, 12 times the Bank hiked reserve requirements, to a certain extent, increase the pressure on market liquidity. Recently, a growing number of bank deposit and loan ceiling than the approximation 75%, lending capacity is constrained.

"Momentum in controlling price rises properly oriented relaxing financial control at the same time, support compliance with industry policies, orders, good benefit for enterprise development.”Deputy Secretary Huang l b of the Coordinating Bureau of the Ministry of monitoring said.

After this cut the deposit rate, large financial institutions reserve for 21%, small and medium-sized financial institutions to 17.5%, to release nearly 400 billion Yuan of funds. Experts believe that the cut a slightly positive effect on bank earnings, corporate credit or to relax. Mentioned many times in previous senior "policy presetting fine" background, of markets is extremely concerned at the reduction in releases stored signal.

, Director of the State Council Development Research Center, Institute of finance and Xia Bin, believes that "fine" does not mean that a simple monetary easing, but China's inefficient financial markets and financing, in addition to controlling the money supply, to use the credit institution policy support to help achieve total soundness of policy.

"Fine-the key is to make good use of the dynamic difference reserve ratio, if the Central Bank based on each bank's liquidity, leverage and dynamic adjustment of reserve requirements, a Bank of an adjustment coefficient, which means that the fine tuning space is very large. "Xia Bin said.

"The Central Bank reduced reserve cannot be understood as a directional change in monetary policy. "Zhongyangcaijingdaxue Bank of China [2.95 stock research] industry research center, Guo Tianyong believes that October Exchange account for reduced net losses in the banking system liquidity, substantial increase in revenues and after first receiving characteristics of the phased reduction of some bank deposits, so the Central Bank reduced reserve requirements, it's just hedging policy for mobility.

Prudent monetary policy will continue to

China's policy makers said on many occasions that profound impact of the international financial crisis is still in development, to continue as a matter of urgency to the international financial crisis, and in accordance with their national conditions to implement appropriate fiscal and monetary policies, boosting market confidence.

A rainy day, recent, relevant Department introduced many initiatives, strengthening SME credit support, financial stability of civil, start the VAT reform, strong house price regulation, clean up local loans, promoting the reform of exchange rate and interest rate marketization process. Policymakers are continuous efforts and attempts, through a variety of ways to achieve the dual objective of restraining inflation, growth,

Experts believe that the tone of 2012 policy remained "prudent monetary policies" and "proactive fiscal policy." Guo Tianyong believes that prices are still high, structural adjustment, taking into account factors such as real estate regulation and policies still remained strong.

People's Bank of China Vice Chairman of the graduate school ministries Jiao jinpu introduction, since 2008, regulators use interest rates, reserve requirements, open market operations, window, a series of tools such as guidance, making monetary policy gradually from moderately easy excess to moderate. Prudent monetary policy this year, as well as provide an important foundation for the development of the next year, to curb this year and next will play an important role in rising prices.

Under the continuing tight policy control, China is gradually slowing. The third quarter of 2011, GDP growth per cent stepped down, 9.7%, 9.5%, respectively. October CPI has over high dropped to 5.5% from 6%.

"I estimate the impact of changes in the instruments of monetary policy on macroeconomic will last a year or two, so for now the prudent monetary policy on macroeconomic impact has not yet been fully revealed. Future direction of monetary policy is certainly one of sustainability, this two-year overall macroeconomic can be seen under a moderate monetary policy continued to be good, not rapid ascent. "Jiao jinpu said.

In this regard, the NPC financial and Economic Committee, Wu Xiaoling, Vice the industrial and commercial bank [4.28 unit research report] Chairman Jiang Jianqing fan gang, Director of the Institute, Chinese economic reform Research Fund of the national economy in various occasions, hope that we can continue to keep it for some time in the future monetary policy.

Enterprises in transition in order to break predicament

"Credit crunch, monetary tightening, the brunt of the SMEs, but the source of the problem is that there is a problem in the financial system, services to SMEs is not good enough, leading to SME financing cost and channels have been affected. "Fan gang said.

Implementation of the Basel Protocol III was imminent, boost bank capital pressure; in addition, current European debt crisis sparked fears of a double dip in the global economy, the domestic banking industry trends are becoming increasingly serious. JPMorgan Asia Pacific managing director Frank Gong believes that today, many companies facing financing difficulties in China, China's capital [4.4] urgent development of markets and financial industry should continue to finance innovation, can we truly find the driving force of China's future economic growth.

First Yu Xuejun Deputy Secretary General of the Chinese banks Association believes that with the liberalization of interest rate and gradually advancing, banks from excessively relying on deposit and loan interest rates revenue model to develop intermediate business change; financial disintermediation of large enterprises, China's banking bucked the transformation should pay more attention to micro-enterprises.

Guo Tianyong said small and medium size enterprises through targeted measures, such as issuing debt for SMEs means better effect. Reduced deposit, release the funds, should benefit small and medium size enterprises shortfall, but shortages of funds are in the market, the banks have more of your resources may not be able to give small and medium enterprises. Therefore cut the deposit rate for SMEs ' lack of funding will improve, but will not be changed.

Ebb tide, when the anterior face of thorns, enterprises in the use of policy support at the same time, should also focus on transition, in research and innovation efforts. Uniwin magnetism industry in Haining, Zhejiang Province, Chairman of Yan Jianfeng told reporters that the depression in the larger environment this year, market demand for 30%. Last year, Yan Jianfeng factory invested more than 10 million Yuan, increase the intensity of investment in research and development. "Because prior to equipment upgrades, productivity increased dramatically, and competitive in price and quality, too many sales did not decline this year, exports have also increased 30%. ”
http://finance.ifeng.com/news/special/xtzbjl/20111201/5180381.shtml

China housing prices go next - Inspiration United States and Japan
November 28, 2011 With the increase of market regulation policies are increasingly stringent, real estate, this first "runaway bull" has gradually slowed down the pace,people want to know how the future trend in real estate? The future hold for house prices? United States and Japan have gone through this section, as a developing country, according to the United States and Japan in the past to analyze the market some inspiration.

U.S. home prices has been able to basically avoid the same as the stock market ups and downs, because the real estate bubble has a crazy increase inhibition mechanism, which is one of the important means of housing loan interest rates. U.S. interest rate changes almost every day, especially the changes in long-term U.S. bond yields, are bound to affect the fixed interest rate. The trend of long-term bonds, short-term interest rates with the Fed and financial trends for the assessment of long-term economic development is closely linked to other factors, especially once the U.S. central bank interest rate changes, interest rates adjust immediately followed, which provides for the central bank a very favorable and sensitive lever to control real estate prices.

Second, the U.S. real estate is expensive, which will generally refuse to real estate circles, greatly reducing the real estate crowd, down a destructive real estate bubble. American seller, procedure is very complex and usually has agents buying and selling agents of all parties, once the transaction received from the hands of their customers take the equivalent price of around 3% fee. House close to the national average price for single-family $ 200,000 basis, buyers and sellers after the transaction, the middle agent to spending about $ 12,000 fee, not even counting loans the buyer to pay around $ 2,000 fee, and transfer checked before the housing, real estate registration, prices and other variety of small fee assessed. Generally speaking, when a moderately priced single-family floor final transfer to the buyer's hands, the buyer to pay all costs up to $ 10,000 shade up and down. Such a high cost, most people severely restricted the real estate. Therefore, if most Americans can be real estate, house prices will be very large undulating waves.

Third, the maintenance of their house quite expensive. Ownership of real estate have to pay taxes every year, the general rate of 1% to 1.5%, the middle class housing costs are generally around $ 4,000 every year. In addition, the house also on the insurance, because once the house fire or flood, etc., the insurance company would claim, and thus, the banks can recover their loans as usual, therefore, to loans to buy a house, to house the insurance becomes the lending bank's first request. General house insurance premiums each year for nearly $ 1,000.

Fourth, the U.S. government's tax policy is only the first owner of the house a house tilted, such as loan interest can be tax deductible. If a non-owner-occupied housing, in the interest rate, pay taxes and many other rental, will not enjoy the first housing benefits, and to dramatically increase the sale of residential investment and maintenance costs, significantly reduce the attractiveness of real estate speculation force.

Fifth, the profit after the sale of the house, own homes can enjoy tax-free profit of $ 500,000, but the non-occupied homes have sold for profit as income tax.

Sixth, the United States, statistics on the housing industry is very timely, detailed, monthly number of sets of newly started buildings, among different regions of the monthly price index of change, prices rise and incomes increased contrast, and rising house prices and rental costs increased contrast index, etc., can in a day on the website of the government and relevant, and more accurate, not only to Government departments provide an important basis for policy control, also increased the amount of information and transparency of the public to buy a house, effectively reducing the business element of speculation or monopoly.

The other example comes from Asia, Japan: Japan is the first Asian country to enter the ranks of developed countries, the development of real estate companies and real estate markets have become more rational and standardized training. Now be known as the Asian financial center in downtown Tokyo, is equivalent to the center of Shanghai Jing'an Temple area, buy a new 40-story apartment units, two south, the house with parking, utility area of 90 square meters (building area of 120 square meters), but the price more than 40 million yen, combined 3.6 million Yuan, the construction area of 30,000 Yuan per square meter count, and the Japanese white-collar income equivalent to five times in Shanghai, see Shanghai Jing'an Temple of the high prices.

http://money.caixun.com/content/20111128/CX01uec8.html

November 27, 2011 Report from reporter Pang Dongmei National Bureau of statistics announced on November 27, according to the 1, 4.1217 trillion yuan in profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in the country, an increase of 25.3%. In October, 438.3 billion yuan in profits, an increase of 12.5%.
In the above-scale industrial enterprises, State-owned and State holding enterprises 1.2519 trillion yuan in profits, an increase of 16.6%; collectively 67.6 billion yuan in profits, an increase of 33%; joint-stock company profit of 2.3663 trillion yuan, an increase of 30.3%; enterprises with foreign SAR and Taiwan investment 1.0723 trillion yuan in profits, an increase of 11.6%; private 1.1749 trillion yuan in profits, an increase of 44.3%.
In the field of 39 industrial categories, 36 industries profits rose, 3 sectors fell. Among them, oil and natural gas extraction profits rose 38.5%.
Industrial enterprises above designated size main business revenue 68.1845 trillion yuan, an increase of 29.1%. Cost per hundred Yuan in main business income is $ 85.1, main business income margin of 6.04%.
In the above-scale industrial enterprises, State-owned and State holding enterprises main business revenue 18.6708 trillion yuan, an increase of 22.4%, of every hundred Yuan in main business income cost at $ 82.31, main business income margin of 6.71%; collective enterprises main business revenue 1.0304 trillion yuan, an increase of 27.2%, of every hundred Yuan in main business income cost $ 85.69, main business income margins of 6.56% ; Joint-stock company main business revenue 38.5369 trillion yuan, an increase of 32.8%, of every hundred Yuan in main business income cost $ 84.79, main business income margin of 6.14%; foreign SAR and Taiwan investment enterprise main business revenue 17.8346 trillion yuan, an increase of 21.3%, of every hundred Yuan in main business income cost $ 86.02, main business income margin of 6.01%; private companies main business revenue 20.663 trillion yuan, An increase of 38.6%, of every hundred Yuan in main business income cost $ 86.28, main business income margin of 5.69%.
http://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/20111128/035110890024.shtml

November 25, 2011 a few days ago the institutions ' personnel management Ordinance is open for comments for society. Yesterday, once the exposure draft released today has immediately to the parties to discuss voice. In this regard, China network commentator by Chang Chieh also talked about his views. He said: "management in public institutions, legalization, openness, transparency, and important than the provisions of the Ordinance. Income of the institution, gray income, does not open, transparent income is accounted for the majority, it should be open and transparent, not completely "one size fits all". ”

　　By Chang Chieh also indicated that, "also be clear, since it is a public institution, known as the" cause ", not" commercial ", means that work in this organization is to pay attention to the offer, it should not be compared to the revenue and business units of institutions, or compete with proceeds of the business units. Although China began to market economy, but towards the market economy is not all to the "money", the institution's staff are often very low wages, provides the basis for protection, and is a sacrifice of love. In other countries, the education of a public, private,; medical also has public and private; if you want to high income, it is necessary to work in private. ”

　　In addition, Ming Huang, Vice Minister of public security require the police does not accept cash on a fine, or the public security organs of scum, we must resolutely clear out of the public security contingent, by Chang chieh points out that "before a rule determines, taking into account the real implementation does occur when" rogue game ", but also monitor cost much, as well as the supervision of the person there is a problem of power rent. In this case, obviously does not use "white cat or black cat, catch the mice is a good cat" this view, it is subjectively good wishes, but once the malicious game, it will become "white mouse black-mouse, is not being caught is better mouse". If that's the case, was completely distorts the mind, there will be a big problem. ”

　　This news broadcast content is as follows:

　　"Broadcast" first, look at this list of finance headlines.

　　As of December 30, the institutions ' personnel management Ordinance is intended for the general public for comments. Yesterday, once the exposure draft released today has immediately to the parties to discuss voice. Will perform a national unified wage system of public institution units. Beijing medical staff said in an interview with the Beijing News reporter, currently available unified basic salary for that one, but larger differences of performance pay and allowance subsidies for two, but there is no clear implementation details.

　　Many experts also pointed out that, in the current dispute on the maximum old-age pension issues, regulation is still not a substantive breakthrough. China's administrative system reform Research Association Secretary General Mr. Wang yukai believes that provisions in this area is still very general, in fact, is the default of the current retirement system in public institutions.

　　In addition, the draft of another bright spot is that if the personnel disputes in public institutions and staff, according to "labor dispute mediation and arbitration of law" for processing. However, some jurists say, regulations should make it clear "last to go to court to resolve personnel disputes".

　　"Comment" by Chang Chieh

　　"Ask" today there is such a message, Ming Huang, Vice Minister of public security require the police does not accept cash on a fine, or the public security organs of scum, we must resolutely clear out of the public security contingent. For this, some people in high glee, but for those who worry about enforcement. What do you think?

　　"Broadcast" everyone in participation, achievement "my finance". Hi, I'm Chen Liang. Today is very special for my magazine, is the 100th show, and also happens to be our guests by Chang Chieh. I know that the first phase of the program is that you visit the Studio, can be said that together with our audience to witness 100 issue of the I for financial growth of the program, share your feelings with you.

　　"Broadcast" good, thank you very much you've made some wonderful comments. 100 is the meaning we give a lot of good, and for my magazine, after 100 issues of combs, and then I think we will be more motivated to do the show, also hope that we continue to pay attention. Well, closer to home, starting our program today. Generated by the Internet user clicks in the first "financial this list".

　　1, "Guide" will perform a national uniform wage system of public institution, the relevant regulations are currently seek the views of the public.

　　"Broadcast" comprehensive ten financial websites, "Finance and this list" dierdaowuwei news are:

　　2, the "Guide" huaxi old Wu renbao, Secretary's four sons, can dominate the village funds by means of 90%.

　　3, the "Guide" European debt crisis continues to upgrade stock markets in Europe and six even Yam; home, said Shanghai Vice Mayor Mr. TU guangshao, International Board will be issued in due course.

　　4, the "Guide" the Beijing morning news, currently there are more than more than 20 real estate has promised "price compensation price" or "original repo".

　　5, the "Guide" the Shanghai Securities News, the tariff adjustment programmes may be announced in the near future.

　　"Broadcast" later on, we will bring you the latest stock-market lines. First of all, look at this list of finance headlines.

November 23, 2011 Domestic investment logic fine textures of cosmetic industry leader, looking forward to reform accelerated growth: recently, Whirlpool Corporation Shanghai jahwa, Shanghai (Group) limited company 100% equity, which includes Shanghai jahwa United Company 120 million shares. Shanghai jahwa has six gods and HERBORIST, USA, Canada and net outstanding brand, is undoubtedly the leading domestic enterprises. Through good management, research and development system, strong marketing skills have the potential for long-term development, the foundation solid. If they integrate smoothly after reform, is expected to improve the company's management and incentive mechanism, and significantly enhance the company's long-term competitiveness.

　　In order to facilitate follow-up discussions, cosmetics in accordance with the Statistical Office of the first explicitly described in this standard for classification of manufacturing "2,672-cosmetics manufacture" definitions, including personal care, beauty products, scent of human body using preparations and others. Involving mainly of personal care products and human use fragrance formulations.

　　At present, China's cosmetics market size has reached billions of dollars, according to revenue growth, commonly used cosmetics category and price, we measured the next 5 year compound growth rate of up to 16% of the cosmetics industry. Driving force for the future growth of the industry mainly from category segmentation and income growth. Shanghai jahwa market share only about 3-4%, CR4, CR8 cosmetics industry in China is relatively stable, but many small brands, there still room for improving concentration.

　　Construction model of company's brand is to bypass the core areas of foreign brands, with differentiated products on the basis of low construction cost, risk-controlled store channel, started advertising after brand reaches a certain size, enter into a more expensive department store channel. Brand construction of such a model less risky, can be copied to other brands.

　　Shanghai jahwa United management team vision in the long run, endure loneliness, it is rare in a local company, ensure that the company be able to practice the aforementioned brand-building model. The company attaches importance to research and development, cost, promotion, from staff and other support, the establishment of a domestic first class excellent research and development system, but also poses a barrier to new entrants. Future growth in income growth, the company can be put in more resources on marketing, steadily promoting the construction of channels, channel-and further promote brand building, forming a virtuous circle. At the same time, companies risk tolerance increase, greater Clearance sacrifice on brand cultivation space.

　　Equity effect of reform embodied in three points: first, unlock the restraints of the original system, management can let go of implementing marketing strategies and plans of; the second, the company may by raising salaries, stock option incentive to maintain the stability of the core staff team, inspire enthusiasm for work, strengthening and improving companies ' competitiveness, improving the ability of the company; and, thirdly, reforming GE wenyao, Chairman of lead time may be extended.

　　Brand analysis: Liu Shen provided steady cash flow: strong brands in the summer, high market share. Subject to very strong brand image, brand extends into other seasons with certain difficulties, making it difficult to further enhance the share. Can be used to launch new products get slightly higher than the growth of industry growth, estimated growth rate is sensed.

　　Popular location explicitly promoting net growth in the United States and Canada: NET visibility up to 90% of the United States and Canada, high reputation. Last year, after the clear positioning of brand popularization, introduced the concept of the price is right, publicity affordable products, growth is good. Future growth is expected to be up to 20%.

　　HERBORIST: currently there are over 200 SKU,1100 sales terminal, boutiques and department stores, of which counters the half advantage area in North China, central China, Fujian, and other places. Future plans to open 200 a year and SKU number increased to 300, about 15% for single store gain. Expected future income growth of up to 30-40%.

　　Home: there is in a stage of consumer education, in the short term while untold profits, but optimistic about its long-term space.

　　Gough: 70% growth this year, industry growth and access to Super channels listing reasons. Men's cosmetics market has reached $ 4 billion, growth of about 23%. Gough's channel coverage is low, after future growth through channel, increased marketing efforts, growth is expected to get 40-50%.

　　Shanghai Vive: capital markets worried about the domestic luxury brands are not accepted by the consumer, but the beach brand (ShanghaiTang) shows that the success of, people of the country and the world appears to accept local luxury brands, the key is how to build. Shanghai Vive has better natural conditions-Shanghai culture, long history and rich connotation of the brand story. Shanghai Vive in the short term is difficult to make substantive contributions to performance of the company, but companies are ready for this, so the market does not have to worry about the brand short-term losses would have a significant negative impact.

　　Company stability, profitability, asset management, liquidity, cash flow is good. Company accounting policies carefully, impairments of receivables made higher than the same profession other companies.

　　Regular accounts payable recovery in the future, you can impairment rushed back to earnings. In addition, the company also is expected to bring strong returns on investment projects. Companies have already undertaken within the next 3 years not including equity incentive issue, without any form of refinancing.

　　Profit forecasts and investment advice profit forecast: expected revenues in 2011-2014, 44.7, and 53.7, pace, 19.3%, and 20%, respectively; net profit of $ 3.74, 5.09, and $ 852 million, growth, 35.7%, and 30.7%, respectively; EPS is 0.88, 1.2, and $ 2.01, 32.6% compound growth.
http://news.stockstar.com/info/darticle.aspx?id=SS,20111116,00001988&columnid=2717

November 22, 2011 [World Chinese wealth]
Rumors part of Zhejiang bank deposit rate will be lowered, since that broke past controlled inflation expectations, this may also be a Central Bank policy to the growth and structure of the official steering.
Adjustment of the Central Bank's monetary policy seems to be much faster than expected.

According to one insider today revealed that a notification according to the Central Bank recently, has decided to downgrade yinzhou Bank and several other small, Eastern Zhejiang Province agricultural Bank reserve requirements, the banks ' reserve requirement ratio would be reduced by 50 basis points to 16%, notification on Friday to take effect. In addition, the Bank after agriculture-oriented lending quotas are met, can reduce deposits at the Central Bank.

Central Bank's monetary policy changes in early October will see the signs. Four dramatic growths in the loan, Central consecutive suspended, railways were once difficult to finance the situation sharply changed, and so on. Nevertheless, although the market from time to time deposit rate will be lowered from news, but it has not seen substantive action of central banks. There is no doubt that if confirmed the above message, this means that the Central Bank's monetary policy adjustments have taken a big step forward.

China since late last year 13 times in a row since a rise in deposit rates, deposit rates became the de facto main tool for controlling inflation. Under macro adjustment and control of controlled inflation a top priority, raised its deposit rate constant also formed a strong market expectations, that is, as long as the deposit rates go up, macroeconomic regulation and control of controlled inflation will continue. And once cut the deposit rate, means of controlling inflation macro-policy has come to an end.

Exit macro-policy of controlled inflation, in fact, recently published by the Central Bank barely visible in the third-quarter monetary policy report. In the report, for a long time in the past repeatedly preached by "controlling inflation as the primary task" wording has quietly disappeared. Because of the Central Bank's quarterly monetary policy report with policy bellwether role speculation macro-policy of controlling inflation have been major changes.

However, control of inflation has been faded out, push the front's top priority will be on growth? Currently there are too many reasons to indicate that growth should be placed in the first place.

First of all, the deteriorating international economic situation is very close by. Now even if the European debt crisis eased, but the policy of austerity as the Eurozone countries, investment and consumption will decline sharply, this will severely affect China's exports and economic growth, because the EU is China's largest exporter. Mention now the Eurozone is still dangerous, such as egg base, deteriorate is the probability of the event next year.

Second, the difficulties of SMEs were also unprecedented. While financing is a problem, but the rise in raw material and labor costs, as well as RMB appreciation is huge pressure on SMEs, as soon as the exports situation is not optimistic about next year, I am afraid that the collapse of a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises can be expected. If SMEs close down flows, will be brought about by heavy pressure on employment.

Furthermore, under the current tough market regulation, as the country's economic backbone of the industrial property, its past glory has been hard to duplicate. Statistics for October released by the real estate situation: 70 indicators cities per cent cut for the first time, 0.14% reduction, suggesting House prices up not only fall myths are broken. Although investment in real estate this year there is affordable housing hang in there, but in the real estate investment like this year next year under the fall in house prices, how to see?

Next year, the slowdown in China's economic growth, China's economic situation is not optimistic, this is also the probability of the event. But despite that, China invested money to rescue the economy sharply like 2009, is also gone. China's economy could no longer experience as in the past, large-scale put monetary tightening monetary toss, so will only collapse of China's economy. In fact, in the context of a bear market in the global economy, why is he so arrogant cupola in China?

Now, under the global economic slowdown, to maintain its high economic growth in China is of course difficult, but let the sharp fall in economic growth is not easy, because fall control ability of Chinese culture during the financial crisis has been significantly enhanced. In that case, this is good opportunity for China's economic structural adjustment. From the Central Bank cut deposit rates policy intent, seems to confirm growth while more focused structure. In agriculture, affordable housing, small business loans, the Central Bank would ease credit, save exercise differential rates policy to ensure that some banks have enough money to ensure that the implementation structure.
http://economy.caixun.com/content/20111122/NE031urj.html

November 18, 2011 God of eight home "the Watcher"

　　"Go home!”17th under the witness of many pairs of eyes, Shenzhou eighth returned to space safely. Advantages of independent innovation of China's space technology, gamma height table, "recycling first" radar, connecting trip sth Silent guardian angels eight home, left China in a vast journey between heaven and Earth space people shining footprints.

　　Gamma altimeter – enables eight of God "Made In China"

　　Shenzhou spacecraft's return capsule, eighth after the main parachute opened, there is a localization of key devices – developed independently by China Aerospace Science and industry group company gamma altimeter, enabled in China's manned spacecraft returns for the first time, it is also a stand-alone device localization of Shenzhou spacecraft's final implementation, realization of Shenzhou spacecraft's "Made in China". Its success, won unanimously praised by the parties, once again inspired the nation's aspirations. Read

11/16/2011
Domestic investment logic fine textures of cosmetic industry leader,

looking forward to reform accelerated growth: recently, Whirlpool Corporation Shanghai jahwa, Shanghai (Group) limited company 100% equity, which includes Shanghai jahwa United Company 120 million shares. Shanghai jahwa with six gods, HERBORIST, outstanding brands such as USA, Canada and the net, is undoubtedly the domestic leading enterprises. Through good management, research and development system, strong marketing skills, have the potential for long-term development, the foundation solid. If they integrate smoothly after reform, is expected to improve the company's management and incentive mechanism, and significantly enhance the company's long-term competitiveness.

　　Construction model of company's brand is to avoid the core areas of foreign brands, with differentiated products on the basis of construction of the first channels of a lower-cost, risk-controlled store, began to advertise after brand reaches a certain size, enter into a more expensive department store channel. Brand construction of such a model less risky, can be copied to other brands.

　　Brand analysis: Liu Shen provided steady cash flow: strong brands in the summer, high market share. Subject to very strong brand image, brand extend into other seasons with certain difficulties, making it difficult to further enhance the share. Can be used to launch new product received slightly higher than the industry growth rate of growth, estimated growth rate is sensed.

　　HERBORIST: currently there are over 200 SKU,1100 sales terminal, boutiques and department stores, of which counters the half advantage area in North China, central China, Fujian, and other places. Future plans to open 200 a year, and SKU number increased to 300, about 15% for single store gain. Expected future income growth of up to 30-40%.

　　Home: there is in a stage of consumer education, in the short term while untold profits, but optimistic about its long-term space.

　　Shanghai Vive: capital markets worried about the domestic luxury brands are not accepted by the consumer, but the beach brand (ShanghaiTang) shows that the success of, people of the country and the world appears to accept local luxury brands, the key is how to build. Shanghai Vive have better natural conditions-Shanghai culture, long history and rich connotation of the brand story. Shanghai Vive in the short term is difficult to make substantive contributions to performance of the company, but companies are ready for this, so the market does not have to worry about the brand short-term losses would have a significant negative impact.

　　Regular accounts payable recovery in the future, you can impairment rushed back to earnings. In addition, the company also is expected to bring strong returns on investment projects. Companies have committed themselves, apart from the equity incentive issue, within the next 3 years, without any form of refinancing.

　　Relative valuation: we take into account after the company has long-term competitiveness in brand building, 35x12PE, the corresponding shares $ 42.1.

　　Absolute value: imagine sustainable growth rate of 2%, Beta0.73,WACC a share of 8.32%, WACC method to calculate the value of the stock for $ 42.46. Corresponds to 35.3x12PE.
http://news.stockstar.com/info/darticle.aspx?id=SS,20111116,00001988&columnid=2717

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